College Football Bracketology

Week 2 Bracketology

2008-09-03T10:10:00.000-07:00

Here is this week's bracket. The biggest development that the ACC and Big East were absolutely terrible this week. The ACC went 2-3 against I-A competition while the Big East went 0-4. The difference is that Clemson has no more chances to impress out of conference, while both South Florida and West Virginia have major non-conference games against Kansas and Auburn respectively.

As is always the case, records displayed are against Division I-A teams only. And now, this week's projected bracket:

EAST REGION:

(1) FLORIDA (SEC) (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated Hawaii 56-10

This Week: 9/6 vs. Miami (FL), 8:00 PM

Why Seeded Here: Nothing of note really happened in the Hawaii game. If they hadn't put a whipping on a team like Hawaii, there would have been concern.

How it Could Change: Well, Florida hasn't beaten Miami (FL) since 1986, but that should change this weekend.

(8) CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC) (0-0)

Last Week: N/A

This Week: 9/6, @ Georgia, 3:30 PM

Why Seeded Here: They don't have a major conference win, unlike Fresno State or East Carolina.

How it Could Change: If Georgia gets LeFevour-ed, just about anything becomes possible. If not, there's still road games at Purdue and Indiana to possibly get them off the bottom line.

(4) Arizona State (0-0)

Last Week: N/A

This Week: 9/6, vs. Stanford, 10:07 PM

Why Seeded Here: No reason to change from last week.

How it Could Change: The Sun Devils welcome a frisky Stanford team this week and can’t look ahead to later games on the schedule.

(5) SOUTH FLORIDA (BIG EAST) (0-0)

Last Week: N/A

This Week: 9/6, @ Central Florida, 7:00 PM

Why Seeded Here: The Big East stinks, but the Bulls are still the class of it.

How it Could Change: Looking past a dangerous rivalry game in Orlando against Central Florida would be a disaster.

(3) Oklahoma (0-0)

Last Week: N/A

This Week: 9/6, vs. Cincinnati, 3:30 PM

Why Seeded Here: The Sooners are still the favorites in the Big 12 South.

How it Could Change: Back-to-back games with Texas and Kansas are the first real tests, until then, not a lot of beef in their schedule.

(6) FRESNO STATE (WAC) (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated @ Rutgers 24-7

This Week: Idle

Why Seeded Here: With a win in New Jersey over a decent Big East team, the Bulldogs have the best win by a low-major team in Week One.

How it Could Change: Beating one of Wisconsin or UCLA would give Fresno State a very impressive non-conference haul.

(2) OHIO STATE (Big Ten) (0-0)

Last Week: N/A

This Week: 9/6, vs. Ohio, 12:00 PM

Why Seeded Here: The prohibitive Big Ten favorites have exactly one big non-conference game. Until then, no chance of moving up to the top line.

How it Could Change: Beat the Trojans.

(7) EAST CAROLINA (Conference USA) (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated Virginia Tech 27-22

This Week: 9/6, vs. West Virginia, 4:30 PM

Why Seeded Here: The Conference USA contending Pirates knocked off an ACC team. If they can beat Virginia Tech, they can beat anyone.

How it Could Change: They play with house money against West Virginia.

WEST REIGON:

(1) SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (Pac-10) (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated Virginia 52-7

This Week: Idle

Why Seeded Here: Like the other top seed, no flaws shown in blowing out their week one opponent. However, theirs is much more impressive, as it was 3,000 miles from home.

How it Could Change: Two words: September 13.

(8) FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Sun Belt) (0-1)

Last Week: Lost to Texas 10-52

This Week: 9/6, vs. Alabama-Birmingham, 4:00 PM

Why Seeded Here: Despite the loss to Texas, the Owls are still the favorites in the Sun Belt.

How it Could Change: Road games against Michigan State and Minnesota could give them a valuable win over a major conference team.

(4) Wisconsin (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated Akron 38-13

This Week: 9/6, vs. Marshall, 12:00 PM

Why Seeded Here: The Badgers have beaten a I-A team, unlike others in this range.

How it Could Change: Nothing good can happen for Wisconsin this week unless a huge upset happens.

(5) Georgia (0-0)

Last Week: N/A

This Week: 9/6, vs. Central Michigan, 3:30 PM

Why Seeded Here: No wins of note and injuries.

How it Could Change: It all starts on September 20 with a trip to Arizona State.

(3) Auburn (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated Louisiana-Monroe 34-0

This Week: 9/6, vs. Southern Mississippi, 12:30 PM

Why Seeded Here: Did what they had to against the Warhawks. Better test against Southern Mississippi this week.

How it Could Change: No reason to seed the Tigers higher until Louisiana State comes to town on September 20.

(6) WAKE FOREST (ACC) (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated @ Baylor 41-13

This Week: 9/6, vs. Mississippi, 3:30 PM

Why Seeded Here: With the ACC collectively crapping the bed, Wake had the best win for the conference. And they look like they could spoil Clemson.

How it Could Change: The Demon Deacons have could have two SEC victories to go along with their road destruction of Baylor by the end of the season.

(2) MISSOURI (Big 12) (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated Illinois 52-42

This Week: N/A

Why Seeded Here: Giving up 42 points shouldn't concern Missouri fans, as that's what most Big 12 games will look like this season.

How it Could Change: Any loss before Texas would hurt the Tigers a lot.

(7) UTAH (Mountain West) (1-0)

Last Week: Defeated @ Michigan 25-23

This Week: 9/6, vs. UNLV, 8:00 PM

Why Seeded Here: A road win in Ann Arbor combined with a real shot at winning the Mountain West gets Utah in this week's bracket.

How it Could Change: The Utes won't be sure of their place in the bracket until their season ending tilt with Brigham Young.

Week 1 Bracketology

2008-08-29T09:46:00.000-07:00

This the first bracket on College Football Bracketology. As outlined in the Mission Statement, I’ve ranked, seeded, and drawn up the bracket for the NCAA Tournament at the end of the season. After each matchup, I’ll have a short blub on why the team is seeded where they are and what they can do to change their seeding.

(Reminder: All projected records are D-IA records only)

EAST REGION :

(1) FLORIDA (SEC) (11-1)

Why Seeded Here: Projected champion of the best conference in college football.

How It Could Change: The SEC is mega-tough and anything short of a conference crown would knock them out of the top line of the bracket.

(8) FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Sun Belt) (9-3)

Why Seeded Here: Projected champion of the worst conference in college football.

How It Could Change: Losing the Sun Belt would knock them out. Conversely, beating Texas this Saturday would be a marquee win that could move them up at least one line.

(4) Arizona State (9-2)

Why Seeded Here: The Sun Devils get Georgia at home and should be the number two team in the Pac-10.

How It Could Change: Winning the Pac-10 outright would send their stock way up.

(5) CLEMSON (ACC) (9-2)

Why Seeded Here: The Tigers are projected to win their first ACC title in since 1991. But, two non-IA games means their non-conference schedule is too weak to be rewarded with a home game.

How It Could Change: Running the table would put the Tigers in line for a higher seed.

(3) Missouri (10-2)

Why Seeded Here: The projected losers of the Big 12 title game also have a good win over Illinois.

How It Could Change: Winning the Big 12 would put them in consideration for a top seed.

(6) Georgia (8-3)

Why Seeded Here: The last team in has an incredibly tough schedule, with plenty of opportunities for big wins. This offsets their three losses.

How It Could Change: The Bulldogs could easily be a top seed by year’s end if they take care of business.

(2) OHIO STATE (Big Ten) (10-1)

Why Seeded Here: The projected Big Ten champion should only lose when they travel to Los Angeles.

How It Could Change: Winning in Los Angeles would nearly clinch a top seed, as the Big Ten should offer little resistance.

(7) CENTRAL MICHIGAN (MAC) (9-3)

Why Seeded Here: The Chippewas have two chances to knock off middling Big Ten teams and with Dan LeFevour, they could capitalize.

How It Could Change: Obviously, the MAC isn’t getting two teams. Unless the Chips knock off Georgia AND lose the MAC title game.

WEST REGION:

(1) SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (Pac-10) (11-1)

Why Seeded Here: Hardest schedule in the nation + One-loss season = Top Seed

How It Could Change: If there’s a repeat or two of the Stanford game from last season.

(8) TULSA (Conference USA) (10-2)

Why Seeded Here: Tulsa is the projected Conference USA champion.

How It Could Change: Losing to East Carolina/Central Florida. There isn’t much upside to this team with their weak non-conference slate.

(4) SOUTH FLORIDA (Big East) (9-2)

Why Seeded Here: The projected champion of a weak Big East is balanced against a win over a good Kansas team.

How It Could Change: The Big East isn’t getting two teams, so the Bulls need to win their conference. Also, losing to Kansas would put them on the road in the first round.

(5) Wisconsin (10-1)

Why Seeded Here: Their biggest non-conference game is against Fresno State, which would devalue the Badgers’ good record. Their only loss should be to Ohio State

How It Could Change: There is little room for error for Wisconsin. However, beating the Buckeyes would give them some wiggle room, if not put them in the hunt for a top-two seed.

(3) OKLAHOMA (Big 12) (10-2)

Why Seeded Here: The Big 12 South is full of landmines, but the Sooners prevail both there and in the Big 12 title game. Their non-conference schedule is little help.

How It Could Change: Fewer missteps and the Sooners would be looking at a possibility of a top seed. More missteps (and a title game loss) would see them on the road in the first round.

(6) BRIGHAM YOUNG (Mountain West) (10-1)

Why Seeded Here: The highest seeded low-major team should have a win over one of their two Pac-10 opponents (Washington and UCLA) to go with their Mountain West title.

How It Could Change: An undefeated run should see the Cougars hosting a first-round game.

(2) Auburn (10-2)

Why Seeded Here: Projected SEC West champion. West Virginia will be a good non-conference trophy.

How It Could Change: Winning the SEC would mean that the Tigers wouldn’t have to leave home until the title game.

(7) FRESNO STATE (WAC) (9-3)

Why Seeded Here: With three chances against major conference teams, the Bulldogs should have one to go with a WAC title to get them up to a seven-seed.

How It Could Change: Losing the WAC would keep them out… unless they are a one-loss team and the loss is to Boise State in the finale.

KNOCKING ON THE DOOR:

Texas Tech, Oregon, West Virginia, Louisiana State, Penn State

Mission Statement

2008-08-22T09:53:00.000-07:00

One of the major arguments against a college football playoff is that "a playoff would ruin the regular season". In this blog, I will conduct a thought experiment to see whether that is true or not. The assumption is that the playoff is constructed as follows:

1) Sixteen-team playoff. The playoff is the very similar to the system used in “The Wetzel Plan” outline by YahooSports writer Dan Wetzel. The only differences are there would be no weeks skipped for exams, holiday, etc. The NCAA doesn’t really care about academics, so why would that change? The other is that instead of ranking the teams 1-16, two regions (East and West) are created and ranked 1-8. This allows some room to make sure there are no intra-conference matchups in the early rounds.

2) At-large bids will be decided in a similar way that they are in college basketball. RPI, good wins, and bad losses would factor into the system.

3) Conference championship games will not count in regards to selection for the tournament. However, they will count for seeding in the tournament. My reasoning is to not punish teams too severely for losing an extra game that they had to play in as a reward for winning their division.

4) Strong non-conference scheduling will be rewarded. Weak non-conference scheduling will be punished. Beating a good opponent by a small margin will be looked upon with more favor than beating a poor opponent by large margin.

5) Wins over Division I-AA opponents do not count towards win totals on the season. This means a team like Clemson only has ten games in my eyes this year, as they play only two I-A opponents in their non-conference schedule.

Now, what differences can readers of this blog expect compared all other college football coverage? Basically, the focus will be on making the tournament, not making bowl games. That means the focus will be on reaching greatness, not mediocrity. I intend to have weekly posts of the bracket (Monday), a look at the conference races (Tuesday-Thursday), and a preview of the big games each week (Friday-ish).

At the end of the season, there will be a fictional playoff. It will be played on “Second and Ten”, and excellent college football simulator published by Roogames. It will begin the week after the conference championship games, with the final bracket being released on Sunday night. For this year, the schedule looks like:

December 12-13: First round games at campus sites

December 20: Quarter-final games at campus sites

December 27: Semi-final games at campus sites

January 3: National Championship game, TBA

The one question I have for any readers who stumble across this blog is this: Where should the National Championship game be held. The other divisions in college football have set sites where the game is held each year, so should D-IA do that? Or should the game be shopped around, like the Super Bowl in the NFL is each year?

In closing, College Football Bracketology has one goal: To help destroy the BCS and have a playoff instituted in it’s place. I realize that it won’t be a quick or easy process. In fact, I may not even have an impact at all. However, I feel that the question "Would a playoff ruin the regular season?" should not be debated endlessly by the MSM's talking heads or by people on message boards flinging virtual mud. Instead, I feel that this simple experiment will help to answer that question.